After several years of double‑digit growth, online holiday sales in the U.S. look set for a much more measured climb. Adobe Analytics projects that digital spending between November 1 and December 31 will rise 5.3 % to $253.4 billion. That’s down sharply from the 8.7 % jump recorded last year.
What’s behind the slowdown? Analysts point to persistent inflation, higher borrowing costs and ongoing policy uncertainty. Cyber Monday is still expected to be the season’s biggest day, with sales rising 6.3 % to $14.2 billion. Mobile devices will account for 56.1 % of online spending, underscoring the importance of seamless mobile checkout. Adobe also predicts that consumers will lean more heavily on “buy now, pay later” plans, those transactions could add about $2 billion in spending.
Retailers are reacting in different ways. Walmart and Macy’s have raised their full‑year forecasts, while Target and Best Buy are holding steady. Toymaker Mattel has cut its expectations, reflecting category‑specific pressures. Amazon’s “Big Deal Days” on October 7‑8 are likely to kick‑start the season, with Adobe expecting $9 billion in spending over those two days. Discounts are forecast to reach up to 28 %, roughly similar to 2024 levels, as shoppers search for value and trade up to higher‑quality items.
Why it matters to you!
For companies selling online or investing in digital platforms, a 5 % growth rate is still healthy, but the deceleration signals a shift in consumer psychology. Shoppers are cutting back on discretionary purchases and spreading payments over time; mobile commerce is the dominant channel; and well‑timed promotions can capture share even in a muted environment.
The takeaway: plan for softer topline growth, but don’t slash marketing. Tailor promotions to mobile users, offer flexible payment options, and focus on categories where customers continue to trade up. In a cautious economy, relevance and convenience win the sale.
